How to calculate the percentage of remaining election ballots that your candidate needs to win in order to catch up

Peter-Bakke-Puzzled
 
I’m a math nerd and a political nerd, so I came up with the following equation tonight for other nerds. Regardless of who you want to win the presidency, this equation will tell you how to calculate the percentage of remaining ballots that your candidate needs to win in order to catch up to the other cat. Anything more than that percentage, and your candidate wins! 🙂
 
Formula:
 
0.5 * (Ballots Remaining – Deficit) + Deficit
—————————————————
                     Ballots Remaining
 
You just need to know the number of remaining ballots to be counted and the deficit.
 
For example:
 
As of tonight, Thursday, 11/5/2020, in Arizona, Trump is behind Biden by about 47,000 votes with about 204,000 ballots remaining.
 
For simplicity, let’s just get rid of the thousands (000’s). The calculation will be the same.
 
   0.5 (204-47) + 47
= ——————–
           204
 
       78.5 + 47
= ——————–
            204
 
= 0.615
 
So, Trump needs to win 61.5% of the remaining ballots to pull even. More than that, and he wins.
 
Conversely, Biden needs to win more than 38.5% of the remaining ballots to win (1.0 – .615 = 0.385)
 
Math class is over. Drink a beer. Or a beverage of your choice.

Origins of the Doctrine of Christian “Discovery”

 

Well, I’ll be damned. Take a look at this:

Source: http://ili.nativeweb.org/sdrm_art.html 

To understand the connection between Christendom’s principle of discovery and the laws of the United States, we need to begin by examining a papal document issued forty years before Columbus’ historic voyage In 1452, Pope Nicholas V issued to King Alfonso V of Portugal the bull Romanus Pontifex, declaring war against all non-Christians throughout the world, and specifically sanctioning and promoting the conquest, colonization, and exploitation of non-Christian nations and their territories.

Under various theological and legal doctrines formulated during and after the Crusades, non-Christians were considered enemies of the Catholic faith and, as such, less than human. Accordingly, in the bull of 1452, Pope Nicholas directed King Alfonso to “capture, vanquish, and subdue the saracens, pagans, and other enemies of Christ,” to “put them into perpetual slavery,” and “to take all their possessions and property.” [Davenport: 20-26] Acting on this papal privilege, Portugal continued to traffic in African slaves, and expanded its royal dominions by making “discoveries” along the western coast of Africa, claiming those lands as Portuguese territory.

Thus, when Columbus sailed west across the Sea of Darkness in 1492 – with the express understanding that he was authorized to “take possession” of any lands he “discovered” that were “not under the dominion of any Christian rulers” – he and the Spanish sovereigns of Aragon and Castile were following an already well-established tradition of “discovery” and conquest. [Thacher:96] Indeed, after Columbus returned to Europe, Pope Alexander VI issued a papal document, the bull Inter Cetera of May 3, 1493, “granting” to Spain – at the request of Ferdinand and Isabella – the right to conquer the lands which Columbus had already found, as well as any lands which Spain might “discover” in the future.

In the Inter Cetera document, Pope Alexander stated his desire that the “discovered” people be “subjugated and brought to the faith itself.” [Davenport:61] By this means, said the pope, the “Christian Empire” would be propagated. [Thacher:127] When Portugal protested this concession to Spain, Pope Alexander stipulated in a subsequent bull – issued May 4, 1493 – that Spain must not attempt to establish its dominion over lands which had already “come into the possession of any Christian lords.” [Davenport:68] Then, to placate the two rival monarchs, the pope drew a line of demarcation between the two poles, giving Spain rights of conquest and dominion over one side of the globe, and Portugal over the other.

During this quincentennial of Columbus’ journey to the Americas, it is important to recognize that the grim acts of genocide and conquest committed by Columbus and his men against the peaceful Native people of the Caribbean were sanctioned by the abovementioned documents of the Catholic Church. Indeed, these papal documents were frequently used by Christian European conquerors in the Americas to justify an incredibly brutal system of colonization – which dehumanized the indigenous people by regarding their territories as being “inhabited only by brute animals.” [Story:135-6]

The lesson to be learned is that the papal bulls of 1452 and 1493 are but two clear examples of how the “Christian Powers,” or “different States of Christendom,” viewed indigenous peoples as “the lawful spoil and prey of their civilized conquerors.” [Wheaton:270-1] In fact, the Christian “Law of Nations” asserted that Christian nations had a divine right, based on the Bible, to claim absolute title to and ultimate authority over any newly “discovered” Non-Christian inhabitants and their lands. Over the next several centuries, these beliefs gave rise to the Doctrine of Discovery used by Spain, Portugal, England, France, and Holland – all Christian nations.


References

Cherokee Nation v. Georgia 30 U.S. (5 Pet.) 1, 8 L.Ed. 25 (1831).

Davenport, Frances Gardiner, 19l7, European Treaties bearing on the History of the United States and its Dependencies to 1648, Vol. 1, Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Institution of Washington.

Johnson and Graham’s Lessee V McIntosh 21 U.S. (8 Wheat.) 543, 5 L.Ed. 681(1823).

Rivera-Pagan, Luis N., 1991, “Cross Preceded Sword in ‘Discovery’ of the Americas,” in Yakima Nation Review, 1991, Oct. 4.

Story, Joseph, 1833, Commentaries on the Constitution of the United States Vol. 1 Boston: Little, Brown & Co.

Thacher, John Boyd, 1903, Christopher Columbus Vol. 11, New York: G.P. Putman’s Sons.

Williamson, James A., 1962, The Cabot Voyages And Bristol Discovery Under Henry VII, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Wheaton, Henry, 1855, Elements of International Law, Sixth Edition, Boston: Little Brown, and Co.

Ziegler, Benjamin Munn, 1939, The International Law of John Marshall, Chapel Hill: The University of North Carolina Press.

I love actor Sam Neil

 

“I am very worried about America. I love America. I just love the States. I’m the sort of age that saw America as everything that was good: rock’n’roll, cars with fins, James Dean, John F. Kennedy, baseball and chewing gum. All these things were just fantastic for someone from a little country on the other side of the world. And now I’d be reluctant to set foot in the place. It’s unrecognisable.

“It’s terribly damaged. It’s traumatized. I hope things do change in November but whoever wins that election, there will be staunch resistance from the other side. How you reunite a country that has been systematically taken apart by this administration I just don’t know.”

  • Sam Niell

https://www.smh.com.au/culture/movies/three-decades-on-from-jurassic-park-sam-neill-is-more-adored-than-ever-20200929-p560fn.html

 

Anti-Trumper Republican strategist Steve Schmidt pleads with top administration officials to stop the madness

GRABBED FROM  Steve Schmidt’s TWITTER  FEED 10/2/2020:
 
Steve Schmidt
 
@SteveSchmidtSES
Trump is losing. He is failing. The campaign is out of money. The former campaign manager allegedly stole $40 million and is reported to have beaten his wife and waived a gun at her. 5-0 took him down like he was on COPS. Guilfoye is disgraced and going down.
Don jr is clearly distressed. It’s Everyman and woman for themselves now.  
 

Old friends, you came to Washington, most of you with idealism in your hearts and a love of country and her people. Look what’s happened. It’s not too late. We will protect your

Confidentiality. What is happening inside? Is there talk of inciting fascist militia’s like the proud boys? Is there talk of proclaiming illegitimate victory? Is there talk of illegal voter suppression? It is not too late to do right. Remember all you had to do, once upon
 
a time was be in the Resistance by midnight on June 6, 1944. The time to act is now. Reach out. We will protect you. What are you seeing in the inside. We know about the mutiny tonight. So many of you are working from home now. No one is watching. Slow it down. Do no more damage. Incite no more racial animus. Incite no more violence and insanity. Be complicit in no more lies. Look at the monuments in Washington. Remember what they stand for. We are your friends. The American people are your friends. Hurt us all no more. Help us end this. Reach out
 

let us help you help all of us. Be Patriots in this hour of crisis. It is your next act that will be remembered. Trump will ask more of you. If you do as he asks there will be no place to return from. Infamy will linger forever around your names. It is America or Trump in the final analysis. It is time to come home. The sickness is spreading among you because Trump doesn’t care about you. His recklessness has put your families in danger as he has put all Americans in danger. Help us end this nightmare.

 
What is happening on the inside? What gears and machinery can you throw sand in ? Fight back at long last. Vote him out.

Newspapers are essential for our democracy. But they don’t get paid for it.

… a blast from the past (2003)

“Or, suggests Peter Bakke, online manager at the Concord Monitor, perhaps it’s a downfall of newspapers in general, be they print or online. “Why (should politicians) advertise with somebody who’s writing about you every day anyway?” he asks.”

Source:

https://www.mediapost.com/publications/article/17348/early-state-news-sites-not-as-primary-as-you-migh.html

         Democracy Dies in Darkness

 

The concept of “help thy neighbor”

 

peter bakke - golden rule - Confucius

In Debt: The First 5,000 Years, anthropologist and economist David Graeber proposes a concept of “everyday communism” which he defines, when analyzing peasant lives as “The peasants’ visions of communistic brotherhood did not come out of nowhere. They were rooted in real daily experience: of the maintenance of common fields and forests, of everyday cooperation, and neighborly solidarity. It is out of such homely experience of everyday communism that grand mythic visions are always built”. Also, “society was rooted above in the ‘love and amity’ of friends and kin, and it found expression in all those forms of everyday communism (helping neighbors with chores, providing milk or cheese for old widows) that were seen to flow from it”.

Closer to home, he gives this example: “If someone fixing a broken water pipe says, ‘Hand me the wrench,’ his co-worker will not, generally speaking, say, ‘And what do I get for it?’ … The reason is simple efficiency…: if you really care about getting something done, the most efficient way to go about it is obviously to allocate tasks by ability and give people whatever they need to do them.” Moreover, we tend to ask and give without thinking for things like asking directions, or

“…small courtesies like asking for a light, or even for a cigarette. It seems more legitimate to ask a stranger for a cigarette than for an equivalent amount of cash, or even food; in fact, if one has been identified as a fellow smoker, it’s rather difficult to refuse such a request. In such cases—a match, a piece of information, holding the elevator—one might say the “from each” element is so minimal that most of us comply without even thinking about it. Conversely, the same is true if another person’s need—even a stranger’s—is particularly spectacular or extreme: if he is drowning, for example. If a child has fallen onto the subway tracks, we assume that anyone who is capable of helping her up will do so.”

The thing which makes it “every day” is this argument: “communism is the foundation of all human sociability. It is what makes society possible. There is always an assumption that anyone who is not actually an enemy can be expected to act on the principle of “from each according to their abilities”, at least to an extent, which is to say, the extent just described.

He proposes studying these practices and says that the “sociology of everyday communism is a potentially enormous field, but one which, owing to our peculiar ideological blinders, we have been unable to write about because we have been largely unable to see it”. Nevertheless, Graeber’s ideas were later discussed by journalist Richard Swift as being a type of “a reciprocal economy”—which makes use of the “ethic of reciprocity” or the “Golden Rule“.

From: Debt: The First Five Thousand Years

See also: Primitive communismOriginal affluent society, and Gift economy

 

Ever want to see what a CIA Security Background check looks like? Check out mine. (REMOVED)

I have provided my CIA TK/SI background check document from 1986. I’ve redacted portions of it myself.

At the height of the Cold War, when President Ronald Reagan was calling the Soviet Union the “Evil Empire,” I applied to the SOVA (Soviet Analysis) section of the CIA at Langley, Va. Additionally, I submitted to three polygraphs. The first polygraph was given at CIA Headquarters in Langley and two subsequent polygraphs were administered off-site in the suburbs of Washington D.C.

Could you pass a similar background check?

P.S. Ultimately, I never worked for the CIA. Or did I?

 

Official Seal of the CIA

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News from Around the World

Monet, 1879

In 1879, Claude Monet moved with his family to the village of Vétheuil on the north bank of the River Seine. For the next three years the town became the artist’s central landscape motif. His style during this period evolved from the blunt, broad strokes of the 1870s to delicate, rhythmic brushwork that reads like a gauze of spun sugar. The poplars in the background appear as twirling configurations of blue and green, while the clouds are painted in a broad and wet manner that suggests the flat quality of the sky at midday.