How to calculate the percentage of remaining election ballots that your candidate needs to win in order to catch up

Peter-Bakke-Puzzled
 
I’m a math nerd and a political nerd, so I came up with the following equation tonight for other nerds. Regardless of who you want to win the presidency, this equation will tell you how to calculate the percentage of remaining ballots that your candidate needs to win in order to catch up to the other cat. Anything more than that percentage, and your candidate wins! 🙂
 
Formula:
 
0.5 * (Ballots Remaining – Deficit) + Deficit
—————————————————
                     Ballots Remaining
 
You just need to know the number of remaining ballots to be counted and the deficit.
 
For example:
 
As of tonight, Thursday, 11/5/2020, in Arizona, Trump is behind Biden by about 47,000 votes with about 204,000 ballots remaining.
 
For simplicity, let’s just get rid of the thousands (000’s). The calculation will be the same.
 
   0.5 (204-47) + 47
= ——————–
           204
 
       78.5 + 47
= ——————–
            204
 
= 0.615
 
So, Trump needs to win 61.5% of the remaining ballots to pull even. More than that, and he wins.
 
Conversely, Biden needs to win more than 38.5% of the remaining ballots to win (1.0 – .615 = 0.385)
 
Math class is over. Drink a beer. Or a beverage of your choice.

Business hours

We’re OPEN Most days about 9 or 10, occasionally as early as 7, But some days as late as 12 or 1. We’re CLOSED About 5:30 or 6, occasionally about 4 or 5, But sometimes as late as 11 or 12. Some days or afternoons we aren’t here at all But lately, we’ve been here just about all the time, Except when we’re someplace else. But we should be here then, too.  …  sign seen in Henniker, New Hampshire.

 

Malcolm Gladwell Can Write About Almost Anything.

The following is the article that was the foundation for Gladwell’s viral TED talk about spaghetti sauces.

Does an article about ketchup, mustard, and spaghetti sauce sound weird?

Weird is Gladwell’s oeuvre.

“Today there are thirty-six varieties of Ragú spaghetti sauce, under six rubrics—Old World Style, Chunky Garden Style, Robusto, Light, Cheese Creations, and Rich & Meaty—which means that there is very nearly an optimal spaghetti sauce for every man, woman, and child in America. Measured against the monotony that confronted Howard Moskowitz twenty years ago, this is progress. Happiness, in one sense, is a function of how closely our world conforms to the infinite variety of human preference. But that makes it easy to forget that sometimes happiness can be found in having what we’ve always had and everyone else is having. “

Read more at the New Yorker.

gladwell malcolm

Martin Gardner: Mathematical Games : A Cipher that Defeated Poe

Peter Bakke : I solved this cipher in 1987.

“Ge Jeasgdxv,
Zij gl mw, laam. xzy zmlwhfzek
ejlvdxw kwke tx lbr atgh lbmx aanu
bai Vsmukkss pwn vlwk agh gnumk
wdlnzweg jnbxw oaeg enwb zwmgy
mo mlw wnbx mw al pnfdcfpkh wzkex
hssf xkiyahul. Mk num yexdm wbxy
sbc hv wyx Phwkgnamcuk?”

In 1839, in a regular column Edgar Allan Poe contributed to a Philadelphia periodical, Alexander’s Weekly Messenger, Poe challenged readers to send him {cryptograms (monoalphabetic substitution ciphers), asserting that he would solve them all “forthwith.” One G. W. Kulp submitted a ciphertext in longhand. It was printed as shown above in the issue of February 26, 1840. Poe “proved ” in a subsequent column that the cipher as a hoax—”a jargon of random characters having no meaning whatsoever.” In 1975 Brian J.Winkel, a mathematician at Albion College, and Mark Lyster, a chemistry major in Winkel’s cryptology class, cracked Kulp’s cipher. It is not a simple substitution — Poe was right — but neither is it nonsense. Poe can hardly be blamed for his opinion. In addition to a major error by Kulp there are 15 minor errors, probably printer’s mistakes in reading the longhand. Winkel is an editor of a new quarterly, Cryptologia, available from Albion College, Albion, Mich. 49224, at $16 per year. The magazine stresses the mathematical and computational aspects of cryptology. The first issue (January, 1977) tells the story of Kulp’s cipher and gives it as a challenge to readers. So far only three readers have broken it.

 

How to use SurveyMonkey.com as a simulation tool

The If/Then/Else simulation structure in SurveyMonkey.com can be implemented this way
Create a single choice question on page 1, such as:

You are an Ambassador from which country?

Visualisation of ghost cells.
Visualisation of ghost cells. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
A England
B Germany
C France
Once the question is created, edit it and click on LOGIC
For each question selected you can then specify to jump to a specific page.
For example,
IF England jump to page 2 (containing text simulating an accord specific to England)
Else If Germany jump to page 4 (containing text simulating an accord specific to Germany)
Else If France jump to page 6 (containing text simulating an accord specific to France)
Page 7 resumes for all
and you can ask a summative question like,”Based on the document you just read, do you believe war is likely?” Y / N
Set up pages 3 and 5 to jump automatically to page 7 in order to skip the Germany and France pages. Page 6 naturally drops to page 7 after the France page is displayed  
I hope that makes some sense – It’s not perfect, a bit awkward, and the results have to be interpreted carefully, but it can work!