I’m a math nerd and a political nerd, so I came up with the following equation tonight for other nerds. Regardless of who you want to win the presidency, this equation will tell you how to calculate the percentage of remaining ballots that your candidate needs to win in order to catch up to the other cat. Anything more than that percentage, and your candidate wins!
0.5 * (Ballots Remaining – Deficit) + Deficit
You just need to know the number of remaining ballots to be counted and the deficit.
As of tonight, Thursday, 11/5/2020, in Arizona, Trump is behind Biden by about 47,000 votes with about 204,000 ballots remaining.
For simplicity, let’s just get rid of the thousands (000’s). The calculation will be the same.
0.5 (204-47) + 47
78.5 + 47
So, Trump needs to win 61.5% of the remaining ballots to pull even. More than that, and he wins.
Conversely, Biden needs to win more than 38.5% of the remaining ballots to win (1.0 – .615 = 0.385)
Math class is over. Drink a beer. Or a beverage of your choice.